Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions amounted to between 51 and 58 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent (Gt CO2e) in 2021, according to the Emissions Gap Report published by UNEP. Brazil currently contributes (2021) with 2.42 Gt CO2e, or between 3.5 and 4.5% of annual global emissions. This share, which already represented 6% in 2003.

Considering the size of the national territory (5% of the Earth's surface), Brazil's contribution to global GHG emissions is relatively small, but it is still the fifth largest emission on the planet.

Despite recent advances, we are still far from being a Low Carbon Economy. Our per capita emissions exceed 11 tCO2e/inhabitant (2021) and continue to be above the global average of just over 7 tCO2e/inhabitant (it already doubled that in the 1990s).

According to the IPCC's 6th assessment report (IPCC-AR5), cumulative global emissions should be limited to 500 GtCO2e between 2020 and 2100 to have a reasonable chance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. This means limiting global per capita emissions to around 1 ton per inhabitant per year by mid-century

Based on information from the IPCC AR5 and the First National Assessment Report of the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (PBMC – RAN1), it is estimated that the consequences of climate change will have a profound impact on Brazil, especially for agriculture, energy security, health and housing, since the scenarios studied point to the possibility of an increase in the average temperature by up to 5°C in some regions of the country, and an increase in the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme events of drought and precipitation.

Brazil has a National Policy on Climate Change with a goal of reducing emissions from 36.1% to 38.9% compared to a projection of our emissions for 2020. A series of actions were formulated for the country to achieve these goals, including a set of sectoral plans in areas such as agriculture, combating deforestation, industry, energy, transport and mining.

In 2015, Brazil launched its INDC (nationally determined contribution) with intended commitments for the post-2020 period as part of the construction of the new global climate agreement. The INDC includes a target of 37% reduction of emissions from 2005 to 2025 and the indicative of 50% reduction in 2030 and a set of commitments and programs to reach this target.

Monitoring Brazilian GHG emissions is essential to assess progress in implementing the National Policy on Climate Change and commitments to the UNFCCC, in addition to outlining trends and detecting any deviations in course in time to carry out the necessary corrections and adaptations. 

Brazil is not obliged to produce annual national inventories and reports of its emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as it is not included in the list of countries in Annex I of the Convention, which covers developed countries and the so-called developing economies. transition, like the Eastern European countries. As with the other countries that are not listed in Annex I, Brazilian inventories do not have a defined frequency and the data are not subject to review by an international team. So far, Brazil has produced three inventories (1994, 2005 and 2010) and data updates or biannual estimates have been published since 2013.

National communications are a commitment of all UNFCCC signatory countries and report the efforts made to mitigate the causes and mitigate the impacts of their emissions. The Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI) is responsible for preparing the Brazilian communication, a ministry also responsible for coordinating the implementation of the Climate Change Convention in the country, since its signature in 1992.

In 2010, when the National Policy on Climate Change was regulated, Decree 7,390 determined that the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation produce annual estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. In June 2013, in compliance with this determination, the MCTI started publishing updates with estimates until the year 2010. In 2022, the MCT published an update, with data until 2020.

The lag between the publication of the data and the period covered is a problem, as it takes time to capture the evolution of emissions (currently the lag is at least 2 years). Another difficulty is the way in which official estimates are presented, which limits the possibilities for using the data. The printed tables are complex and difficult to use, and the newly established database (SIRENE), although an advance, is incomplete and not very detailed.

Faced with the need to obtain updated data on greenhouse gas emissions, over the last few years some independent initiatives to calculate emissions have emerged. In 2009, agronomist and PhD in Geosciences, Carlos Clemente Cerri, from the Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture (CENA), made estimates for the period from 1990 to 2005 (the second inventory had not yet been released), and made updates to until 2008. It then published several articles with suggestions for mitigating emissions and low-carbon alternatives for agriculture and livestock, including sectoral and regional adjustments.

In November 2012, another set of independent estimates was published by forestry engineer Tasso Azevedo. The work was part of the preparation of subsidies for Brazil's participation in the 18th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change (COP 18), held in Doha, Qatar. The estimates of GHG emissions covered the period from 2005 to 2011, completing the data available from the period 1990 to 2005. The methodology used was based on the 2nd Brazilian Inventory of Emissions of the MCTI and on the updating of data then available in an accessible form on the internet.

Such initiatives served as the inspiration and embryo of the present System of Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions - SEEG of the Climate Observatory (OC) that annually produces estimates for the entire country and all states and DF with data since 1970.

The Climate Observatory's commitment, based on this system, is to prepare annual estimates and analyzes with a maximum interstice of one year, and to make all data, methods and spreadsheets accessible, so that all interested parties can qualify for the debate on the policies somehow related to climate change in Brazil.

These updated estimates, although with the limitations of the circumstances in which they were produced, allow us to perceive trends and favor analyzes and corrections in time to guide the adoption of adequate public policies and promote the necessary adjustments and corrections of directions in existing public policies.

Building an efficient Low Carbon Economy depends on making more informed decisions, planning and implementing public policies and promoting governmental, non-governmental and private sector initiatives.

** Access the SEEG Platform version history here.

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions totaled about 51 and 58 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent (Gt CO2e) in 2020, according to Emissions Gap Report from UNEP. Brazil currently contributes 2.16 Gt CO2e, or 3-4% of annual global emissions. This share him 2003-2004 reached 6%.

Considering the size of the national territory (5% of the earth's surface), Brazil's contribution to global GHG emissions is relatively small, but it is still the seventh largest emission on the planet.

Despite recent advances, we are still far from being a Low Carbon Economy. Our per capita emissions exceed 10 tCO2e / inhabitant (2020) and are still higher than the global average of 7 tCO2 / hab (already double that in the 1990s). 

According to the IPCC's 6th assessment report (IPCC-AR6), cumulative global emissions should be limited to 500 GtCO2e between 2020 and 2100 in order to have reasonable chances of limiting the global temperature rise by 1,5° C. This means limiting global emissions per capita to about 1  tons per inhabitant per year in the middle of the century. 

Based on information from the IPCC AR5 and the First National Assessment Report of the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (PBMC - RAN1), it is estimated that the consequences of climate change will have a profound impact on Brazil, in particular on agriculture, energy security, health and housing, since the scenarios studied indicate the possibility of increasing the average temperature by up to 5 ° C in some regions of the country, and increasing the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme drought and precipitation events.

Brazil has a National Policy on Climate Change with a target of reducing emissions from 36.1% to 38.9% against a projection of our emissions for 2020. A series of actions are underway for the country to reach these goals, including a set of sectoral plans in areas such as agriculture, combating deforestation, industry, energy, transport, and mining.

Already in 2015, Brazil launched its INDC (nationally determined contribution) with commitments intended for the period after 2020 as part of the construction of the new global climate agreement. The INDC includes a target of reducing emissions by 37% from 2005 to 2025 and the indicative 43% reduction by 2030 and a set of commitments and programs to achieve this goal.

The monitoring of Brazilian GHG emissions is fundamental for evaluating the progress of the implementation of the National Policy on Climate Change and the commitments to the UNFCCC, as well as delineating trends and detecting possible deviations from the road in time to make necessary corrections and adaptations.

Brazil is not required to produce annual national inventories and communications of its emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) because it is not included in the list of countries in Annex I to the Convention, which covers developed countries and so-called like the Eastern European countries. As with the other non-Annex I countries, Brazilian inventories do not have defined periodicity and the data are not submitted to the review of an international team. So far, Brazil has produced three inventories (1994, 2005 and 2010) and data updates or biannual estimates have been published since 2013.

National communications are a commitment of all UNFCCC signatory countries and report on efforts to mitigate the causes and mitigate the impacts of their emissions. The Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation (MCTI) is responsible for the elaboration of the Brazilian communication, which is also responsible for coordinating the implementation of the Convention on Climate Change in Brazil since it was signed in 1992.

In 2010, when regulating the National Policy on Climate Change, Decree 7.390 determined that the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation produce annual estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. In June 2013, in response to this determination, the MCTI began publishing updates with estimates up to the year 2010. In 2018 the MCT published an update, with data up to 2015.

The gap between the publication of the data and the period covered is a problem since it takes time to capture the evolution of emissions (currently the lag is at least 2 years). Another difficulty is the form of presentation of official estimates, which limits the possibilities of using the data. The printed tables are complex and difficult to use, and a newly established database (SIRENE) is an incomplete and incomplete breakthrough.

Faced with the need to obtain up-to-date data on greenhouse gas emissions, there have been some independent initiatives to calculate emissions in recent years. In 2009, Agronomist and Ph.D. in Geosciences, Carlos Clemente Cerri, of the Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture (CENA), made estimates for the period from 1990 to 2005 (the second inventory had not yet been disclosed), and made until the year 2008. He then published several articles with suggestions for mitigation of emissions and low-carbon alternatives for agriculture and livestock, including sectoral and regional adjustments.

In November 2012, another set of independent estimates was published by the forestry engineer Tasso Azevedo. The work was part of the preparation of subsidies for Brazil's participation in the 18th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change (COP 18) held in Doha, Qatar. Estimates of GHG emissions covered the period from 2005 to 2011, completing the data available from 1990 to 2005. The methodology used was based on the 2nd Brazilian Inventory of Emissions of MCTI and updating of data than available in an accessible form on the internet.

These initiatives served as inspiration and embryo for the present Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimate System (SEEG) of the Climate Observatory (OC), which annually produces estimates for the entire country and all states and DF with data since 1970.

The Climate Observatory's commitment under this system is to prepare annual estimates and analyzes with a maximum gap of one year, and to make all data, methods, and spreadsheets accessible so that all stakeholders can be informed for the debate of climate change-related policy in Brazil.

These updated estimates, although with the limitations of the circumstances in which they were produced, making it possible to perceive trends and favor analyzes and corrections in time to guide the adoption of adequate public policies and to promote the proper adjustments and corrections of directions in existing public policies.

Building an efficient Low Carbon Economy depends on better-informed decision-making, planning and implementation of public policies, and the promotion of governmental, non-governmental, and private sector initiatives.

**  Click here to see the history of the versions of SEEG Platform.